Wood, Elisabeth Jean. 2000. Forging Democracy from Below: Insurgent Transitions in South Africa and El Salvador.

At first blush, comparing El Salvador and South Africa would seem like an odd thing to do. After all, in both cases there were contemporaneous insurgencies that would seem to provide a better basis for a comparative study. However, Wood makes a compelling argument in this work, which is that in both cases the conflict resulted in a negotiated democratic settlement driven by regime economic elites reassessing their positions in the conflict and the value of a labor-coercive oligarchical political structure. In El Salvador, this change was driven by a restructuring of the economy away from agricultural export to service and manufacturing. In South Africa, this was driven by both capital flight and sanctions, but also by a transition from low-wage, low-skill, labor intensive modes of production to high-wage, high-skill, labor efficient modes of production. In these new economic realities, the disruption caused by insurgent mobilization severely hampered the profitability of elite enterprises, and thus a split in the regime coalition emerged between political hardliners and economic accomodationists. In both cases this was demonstrated by a shift from reactionary leaders (Botha, d'Aubisson) to elite-friendly negotiators (deKlerk, Cristiani). And even though the insurgent organizations used very different tactics (FMLN was military dominant, ANC relied on labor unrest and 'ungovernability') both cases resulted in a settlement that met insurgent political demands while securing the financial positions of economic elites (limiting Salvadoran land reform and rejecting South African nationalization of industry). So, in the cases under scrutiny, the model works.

The catch is that these cases had some fairly unique attributes, which Wood acknowledges. First, the economy was able to restructure and allow the emergence of new elites. Second, the resources in question were divisible in a way that other identity struggles may not be. Third, the regime and the insurgents were economically integrated, so that recalcitrance by either side would represent a significant blow to the other. Thus, before this theory can be applied, some careful analysis of the relationship between the combatants and their motivation need to be undertaken.