Lichbach, Mark. 1998. The Rebel's Dilemma. University of Michigan Press: Ann Arbor.

So this book is incredibly important for understanding post-modern war. In a nutshell, it applies a rational actor model to the collective action problems inherent in public protest. The problem faced by would-be revolutionaries is that they are trying to motivate people to make a personal sacrifice in order to achieve a public good. Thus, potential followers all have compelling reasons to free-ride on the efforts of others, which, in turn, implies that everyone will individually choose to stay home and let others do the work and thus no collective dissent ought to ever occur. And, as the theory predicts, most of the time dissent DOESN'T occur; however, it is obvious that in reality sometimes people are able to overcome the collective action problem and mobilize an organization against the state. This book explores how that's possible.

The incredibly short version is that dissident entrepreneurs overcome CA problems by changing the incentive structure perceived by potential dissidents so that the believe the potential benefits of participation outweigh the costs. There are a LOT of solutions, which are used in a complex, continuously changing pattern as multiple entrepreneurs compete for support and respond to state counteractions. Fortunately, the book is laid out in an incredibly deliberate fashion, and can be used as a reference as well as a free-standing work. Bottom line -- if you're analyzing an insurgency and haven't thought about Lichbach, you're probably wrong.

Also relevant is Lichbach's critique of Deprivation models of revolution, which posit that when people are angry enough they spontaneously rebel and overthrow the state. This seems plausible enough, because revolutions don't seem to occur under the banner of "Everything is Generally OK". However, if discontent were sufficient to explain revolution, the pattern of revolutionary activity would be fairly predictable. What Lichbach posits, I think persuasively, is that there are ALWAYS grievances against the state, because the state cannot satisfy all its constituents. Revolution, however, only occurs when a dissident entrepreneur figures out how to mobilize people around a particular set of grievances and incentivize participation in such a way that the movement overcomes the collective action problem.